mrmidnight
05-17-06, 01:29 AM
000
AXNT20 KNHC 162312
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 16 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif) AND SATELLITE IMAGERY (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html) THROUGH
2245 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 15N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WELL
DEFINED SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE 11N58W-12N62W INCLUDING SOME OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N23W 1N38W EQ51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN
COAST WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA S OF 13N W OF 4W.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 10W-30W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT HAS PLAGUED THE E US FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
REMAINS OVER THE E GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING
THE N GULF N OF 25N. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W
ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR FORT MYERS TO A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N86W THEN S
TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE
E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COVERING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA S OF 30N AND THE THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE BROAD UPPER HIGH THAT IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BUT
WILL WEAKEN BY THU MORNING. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA S OF
24N ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED INLAND OVER COLOMBIA MOVING INTO THE
CARIBBEAN WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INLAND OVER PANAMA WITH SCATTERED
CLUSTERS S OF 12N FROM 77W-81W. THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE W ATLC TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM OVER
HONDURAS ALONG 16N85W TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W. THIS IS BEING
AIDED BY THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION BEING
ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DRY AIR
DOMINATES THE FAR E CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS APPROACHING.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH PLAGUING THE E US FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS
GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N75W CROSSING FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF
26N ACROSS CUBA FROM 74W-80W WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
225 NM OF LINE FROM 25N78W TO BEYOND 32N74W. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
AXIS ALONG 24N75W TO JUST W OF BERMUDA. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N FROM 28W-57W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N25W SW TO 21N47W WITH A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH E OF
THE FRONT NEAR 22N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA NEAR 15N17W WSW TO 10N45W.
$$
WALLACE
My little forecast, even though I am a surface weather observer is that that wave will not strengthen and will hit northeastern South America.
Also, a little forecast from Accuweather for ya...
http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/images/promos/hurr2006/hurrisk.jpg
AXNT20 KNHC 162312
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 16 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif) AND SATELLITE IMAGERY (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html) THROUGH
2245 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 15N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WELL
DEFINED SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE 11N58W-12N62W INCLUDING SOME OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N23W 1N38W EQ51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN
COAST WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA S OF 13N W OF 4W.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 10W-30W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT HAS PLAGUED THE E US FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
REMAINS OVER THE E GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING
THE N GULF N OF 25N. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W
ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR FORT MYERS TO A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N86W THEN S
TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE
E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COVERING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA S OF 30N AND THE THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE BROAD UPPER HIGH THAT IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BUT
WILL WEAKEN BY THU MORNING. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA S OF
24N ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED INLAND OVER COLOMBIA MOVING INTO THE
CARIBBEAN WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INLAND OVER PANAMA WITH SCATTERED
CLUSTERS S OF 12N FROM 77W-81W. THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE W ATLC TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING AN AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM OVER
HONDURAS ALONG 16N85W TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W. THIS IS BEING
AIDED BY THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION BEING
ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DRY AIR
DOMINATES THE FAR E CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE
TO THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS APPROACHING.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH PLAGUING THE E US FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS
GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N75W CROSSING FLORIDA JUST N OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF
26N ACROSS CUBA FROM 74W-80W WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
225 NM OF LINE FROM 25N78W TO BEYOND 32N74W. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC EXTENDS FROM THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
AXIS ALONG 24N75W TO JUST W OF BERMUDA. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N FROM 28W-57W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N25W SW TO 21N47W WITH A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH E OF
THE FRONT NEAR 22N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA NEAR 15N17W WSW TO 10N45W.
$$
WALLACE
My little forecast, even though I am a surface weather observer is that that wave will not strengthen and will hit northeastern South America.
Also, a little forecast from Accuweather for ya...
http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/images/promos/hurr2006/hurrisk.jpg